A German Charm Offensive aimed at Keeping Great Britain within the European Union

A German Charm Offensive aimed at Keeping Great Britain within the European Union

By E. Stanley Ukeni

The past couple of years have seen an increasing call for the dissolution of the European Union by a growing euro skeptic groups within European countries. These groups have seen their membership swell exponentially in the last couple of years—as an increasing number of disillusioned citizens join ranks with these often ultranationalist political pressure groups. These voices of anti-European Union seem to echo the loudest within the United Kingdom which is facing economic challenges coupled with an increasing resentment of largely economic migrants from the other European states, and across the world.

In a brilliant political move, the U.K. Prime Minister, David Cameron, moved to placate this rapidly expanding electoral constituent—and then harness this growing anti-European Union sentiment for his political advantage. He proposed a nationwide referendum on the country’s membership of the European Union by the year 2017 if reelected as Prime Minister. The move paid off, as the specter of a referendum galvanized the anti-European Union voting bloc to throw their lot with the Conservative Party. David Cameron subsequently secured a decisive second term win as prime minister in the May 7^th U.K. general election.

Faced with a growing popularity of right-wing populist parties across Europe, that intend to do away with the single European currency, and any sort of closer political union, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, initiated a charm offensive as she received the visiting U.K. Prime Minister, in May 29^th, 2015. The state visit was intended to strengthen the bilateral relationship between Germany and Great Britain—two countries that are proponents of strict fiscal responsibility, both at home and in the European Union.

This visit to German by David Cameron—a part of a whirlwind, four-country, official diplomatic state visits to Germany, France, Netherlands and Poland, is perhaps an effort by the British Prime Minister to psyche-out the international policy positions of these key European states ahead of unveiling the foreign policy agenda of his new administration. It is no secret that the British government is going to be faced with very tough domestic and international challenges in the near future. David Cameron is probably determined to make sure that his new administration makes very few missteps, in key foreign policy areas, in the coming months and years.

I suspect that the state visit was a welcomed occasion for the German Chancellor, who probably intends to seize every opportunity possible to ward off the prospect of a British exit from the European Union. In a bid to achieve her aim, Angela Merkel promised to work with the U.K. prime minister to secure a deal on reforming the European Union, which would ensure that Britain remains in the economic bloc. This is an apparent shift in the German Chancellor’s previous position of forging an even closer integration of Eurozone countries. 

My sense is that the proponents of anti-European Union movement are quite antsy right now about this savvy political move by the German Chancellor—who seems determined to persuade the United Kingdom to remain within the Union. Many within the ranks of the anti-European Union movement are probably harboring an uneasy notion that the Prime Minister might spectacularly renege on his promise for a nationwide referendum on Britain’s continued membership in the European Union. Their fear of being politically shafted is not too farfetched, after all the Prime Minister does not necessarily need their political support in the near term—especially after David Cameron indicated a lack of interest in a third-term bid. However, I do not foresee an immediate reaction from of right-wing populist bloc until the Cameron’s administration indicates the direction that the prime minister intends to take the current British government.

However, there are already indicators that some of the other European Union member countries might not quite share the sentiment of the German Chancellor towards accommodating Britain’s demands for exceptional privileges within the Union. Arguing that the British economy desperately needs the Eurozone trading bloc, more than it likes to admit, in other to remain viable and competitive in the global economic landscape, some countries have indicated that they may not be readily amenable to the sort of accommodation that the British government is seeking as a requisite for remaining within the European Union.

Some powerful political forces within the leadership circles of France, Italy and Poland, for instance, have expressed an aversion to any treaty changes that would adversely affect the bloc’s aim of an even closer integration, in the future. They feel that any tampering with the Union’s treaty arrangement might lead to a gradual unraveling of the Union— as such might open the door for other European Union member-states to agitate for changes that would suit their narrow political and economic interests, at the detriment of the collective good of the Union.

The Polish government in particular, has indicated that it intends to be firm on defending the rights and privileges of Polish migrants living and working in Great Britain, or in any other EU countries, if such a change in the existing European Union treaty arrangement, as Britain is demanding, would violate those right and privileges currently enjoyed my Polish citizens.

It seems like the prospect of a treaty change is going to be a tough and contentious diplomatic process to maneuver through for the German Chancellor. However, Angela Merkel has proven time and again to be able to skillfully navigate through difficult challenges. We remain hopeful that an EU treaty change is achievable before Great Britain holds its anticipated referendum on its membership of the European Union.

Authored by E. Stanley Ukeni, © 2015. All Rights Reserved.

Photo courtesy of bundesregierung/kugler, the British Gov. and the Polish Gov.