The North Korean Military Conundrum
The North
Korean Military Conundrum
By E. Stanley Ukeni
North Korea, on the 10th of October, 2015, staged
a spectacularly impressive military parade—along with other mass civilian performances,
in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the reclusive nation’s
ruling Workers’ Party. The lavish event was marked by pomp and circumstance, as
thousands of precision goose-stepping soldiers paraded through the streets of
the nation’s capital, Pyongyang, in a carefully choreographed show of military
prowls and national pride.
Admittedly, the lavish military celebration delivered on the
North Korean leadership’s long touted promise to stage the most elaborate
military and civilian parade the country has organized since its leader, Kim
Jong-Un, took power. The parade was indeed impressive in its immensity and organization.
At the commencement of the commemoration, the North Korean
leader walked down a red carpet. He paused to salute his honor guard, before
proceeding up to a podium to deliver a speech laced with fiery rhetoric.
Although bellicose in nature, the substance of the rhetoric was largely geared
towards the country’s domestic audience.
“our party can confidently state that our revolutionary
armament today can deal with any kind of war the U.S. imperialists asks for,
and we are fully ready to persistently defend the country’s blue sky and the
well-being of the people,” he retorted, before a cheering crowd.
He further assured his cheering citizenry that, “through the
line of ‘Songun’ (military-first) politics, our Korean People’s Army has become
the strongest revolutionary force and our country has become an impenetrable
fortress and a global military power”.
After the commencement of the parade and pageantry, the
country’s reclusive young leader was on hand to salute the nation’s armed
forces from a viewing balcony overlooking the square named after his
grandfather, as they marched past him—in impressive precision military
formation.
As the throng of international dignitaries, international
journalists and local spectators watched, wave upon wave of goose-stepping
soldiers marched through Kim Il-Sung square, followed by thousands of flowers
and flags waving civilian marchers—many dressed in colorful traditional Korean ‘hanbok’
outfits.
The march was then followed by columns of battle tanks,
armored vehicles, rocket launchers and an array of ballistic missiles mounted
on trucks and mobile missile launchers. While the columns of advanced weapon
systems and platforms rolled by, military aircrafts flew in spectacular
formation overhead.
I am certain that military and intelligence analysts would
be busy for weeks trying to piece together the current political and military
leadership structures of North Korea based on the people pictured nearest to Kim
Jong-Un. I suspect that they would equally be trying to decipher any messages
that the North Koreans may be sending through the structure of its military
regiments at the parade.
My bet is that weapons experts would also spend months trying
to analyze the technical capacities of all the missiles the North Koreans
rolled out during the parade. This, I suspect, would be of particular interest
because for several months now, there has been all sorts of speculations hints
at the North Koreans possessing a particularly menacing new weapon that employs
an exotic process to exponentially enhance explosive yield.
North Korea is a nation of approximately twenty-five million
people—with a remarkable armed force for a country its size and economy. The
North and South Korea remains technically at war because the 1950-1953 war
ended in an armistice, and as such no peace treaty signed between them. As a
consequence, the North Korean Workers’ Party had maintained a “military first”
political doctrine.
The North Korean state boasts of an impressive standing army
of more than 1.2 million active soldiers, and a further 7.7 million reserve
fighting force. This makes the country’s arm forces one of the largest standing
man army in the world. This remarkable troop numbers are further bolstered by
an additional two hundred thousand highly-trained Special Forces units.
Over the years, the reclusive regime of North Korea’s DPRK
has amassed a staggering stockpile of a vast array of military firepower—including
artilleries, ballistic missiles, aircrafts and naval warcraft technologies and
platforms. The North Korean leadership has long claimed to possess nuclear
strike capability, although the size of its arsenal and their technological
sophistication remains shrouded in secrecy.
Just this month, Senior U.S. officials, including Admiral
Bill Gortney, the commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command,
stated to the press a believe that the North Koreans may indeed possess the
ability to miniaturize a nuclear weapon to fit on a long range missile. Media
reports indicated that he made the revelation while addressing a gathering
hosted by the Washington-based Atlantic Council.
This may inform why the U.S. warned the North Korean regime
of strong action from the international community it the country goes ahead
with a speculated satellite launch as part of the 70th anniversary
of the reclusive nation’s ruling Workers’ Party commemoration.
It would be recalled that in September, the director of
North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration declared that their
country’s Aerospace agency was in the final stages of the development of a
weather and earth observation satellite, and hinted at the prospect of
launching the satellite atop a long-range ballistic missile around the 10th of October’s Workers’ Party
celebration.
“The world will clearly see a series of satellites...
soaring into the sky at the times and locations determined by the WPK central
committee,” the director of the North Korea’s National Aerospace Development
Administration said in September.
Although the North Koreans insist that its rocket launch is
intended to deploy a peaceful satellite into orbit, the United States and its
allies view the planned rocket launch as guise for an Intercontinental
Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test—which would violate UN resolutions banning North
Korea from using ballistic missile technology.
It would seem the North Koreans heed the not so veiled
warning from the United States’ government, as the regime shelved its intended
satellite launch during the just commemorated 70th anniversary of
the Workers’ Party. Of course, the
Chinese variable may have equally weighed heavily on the North Korean
leadership’s decision not to fire-off its rocket as they intended.
It’s a good bet to assume that U.S. and international
monitors will continue to closely monitoring land-based missile launch sites and known
nuclear test facilities for signs of activity.
This article is
authored and published by E. Stanley Ukeni. Copyright © 2015. All Rights
Reserved. This material and other articles or stories posted on this blog site
may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed, in
whole or in part, without prior expressed written permission from the author,
E. Stanley Ukeni.
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