Russia’s ‘Zapad 2017’ Military Exercise Stokes Anxiety amongst NATO Countries

Russia’s ‘Zapad 2017’ Military Exercise Stokes Anxiety amongst NATO Countries

By E. Stanley Ukeni @EzStan

In what has been touted in the western media as one of the most elaborate demonstrations of military might by former Warsaw Pact allies since the Soviet era, Russia and Belarus have commenced joint military maneuvers near their shared border with NATO member countries.

(RIA-Novosti, Mikhail Klimentyev)

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense website, the Zapad 2017 war games will involve approximately 5,500 Russian troops, 7,200 troops from Belarus, up to 70 aircrafts, 250 tanks, 200 artillery pieces and 10 navy ships. However, some have disputed these numbers, claiming that the Russians grossly understated the number of troops and military personals that would be participating in the exercise by tens of thousands.

Several military and intelligence analysts have argued that the Russians deliberately rounded up the number of troops that will be participating in the war games to 12,700  in other to avoid its obligation, as a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to invite observers from the other member countries whenever more than 13,000 troops are involved in its military maneuvers.    

As the war games begins along its western border today, there is a marked rise in anxiety within the countries bordering the west of the Russian Federation, and within the corridors of the NATO headquarters—especially so, due to Russia’s current contentious relationship with its NATO neighbors such as Poland and Romania.

The Zapad 2017 military exercise is a massive military drill that the Russian military conducts every four years, along with its strategic ally Belarus, to simulate defensive and counter offensive strategies in the event of a war with NATO member countries. The fact that particular drill will include activities on the borders of Poland and Lithuania has heightened concerns amongst Western countries. 

The Zapad, which literally means west, is an intense military drill that has been ongoing since 1999. This year’s edition is scheduled to run from the 14^th through the 20^th of September. And as the name connotes, it is designed to ensure Russian military readiness ward off an invasion from the west of its borders. 

Vadim Savitsky | TASS | Getty Images

T-72B1 battle tanks take part in military exercises near Murom as part of an operational meeting of the Russian Armed Forces top officials.

The reason for the increased nervousness amongst NATO countries is probably because of the growing mistrust between the United States and Russia. Truth be told, there is merit to the growing concern among Eastern European countries—and perhaps the United States, for the military resurgence of a Russia State that is hell-bent on advancing its global interest—with force of arms where necessary.

Since the last large scale Russian military drill in 2013, the country’s growing military assertiveness—brought on by its annexation of Crimea and a believe that it has a hand in fomenting instability in eastern Ukraine, and equally its robust military involvement in the Syrian civil conflict, is causing the United States and other NATO countries to reevaluate Russia’s commitment to global peace and security.

In light of this recent history of Russia’s increasing willingness to use force to advance its strategic interests, the Baltic member countries of NATO are particularly worried that the Russian military may use the guise of the exercise to make unsanctioned incursions into their territorial waters and airspace. Although the Russian have tried to dismiss such fears as unwarranted, the leaders of the three Baltic States are nevertheless keeping a wary eye on the military exercise as it unfolds.    

Perhaps the Western uneasiness is born of the fact that, in recent year, an increasingly politically assertive and militarily emboldened Russia has begun to systematically challenge America’s global preeminence. There are those who believe that the mid to long term goal of the Russian leadership is to re-enthrone a multipolar world order, where Russia would serve as a counter-weight to an American dominated world order. 

In the lead up the commencement of Zapad 2017, many western military and security experts and intelligence analysts have warned that Kremlin might use the exercise to beef up Russian the strategic military bases in Belarus and its satellite region of Kaliningrad—not far from its western borders.

Some of these experts have even gone as far as suggesting that Moscow may use the guise of the exercise to funnel sophisticated military hardware to Russian-backed separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine.   

Speaking on the Russian military maneuver, in a speech made in the Baltic State of Estonia on September 6^th, the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, said, “Briefings on the exercise scenario and progress; opportunities to talk to individual soldiers; and over-flights over the exercise. This is something that is part of the Vienna document, an agreement regulating transparency and predictability relating to military exercise.”

Although the Russians have invited NATO observers to monitor the exercise, in accordance with its international obligation, Brussels has however raised concern that Russia’s offer to allow three experts to attend some of the military exercises is not in conformity with the spirit of its international obligations under the Vienna convention.  

The Russian Ministry of Defense has states on its website that the Zapad 2017 anti-terror exercise is a defensive maneuver. The site explains the scenario being used for the war games as this, “…The exercise stipulates that some extremist groups have penetrated to the territories of the Republic of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation in order to carry out terrorist attacks and destabilize the United State of Russia and Belarus.”

Arrayed against the Russian-Belarus alliance, in the six-day war games, are fictitious aggressor countries called Veishnoriya, Lubeniya and Vesbasriya. Some have insinuated these names are veiled disguises for the Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, but there is no way to know that for sure.  

Mindful of Russia’s discontent with NATO’s eastwards expansion, Brussels has already taken a number of measures to dissuade any Russian aggression against the Treaty Organization’s eastern members. This includes the deployment of approximately 30,000 NATO troops in Poland. Over the years, the actions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have communicated to Russia NATO’s determination to defend its member countries in the event of aggression.

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Authored by E. Stanley Ukeni, © 2017. All Rights Reserved. This material and other articles or stories posted on this blog site may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed, in whole or in part, without prior expressed written permission from the author, E. Stanley Ukeni.

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