Is the North Korean Preparing to Conduct another Nuclear Test?

By E. Stanley Ukeni

A news report that just came out today suggests that, US government officials have assessed that there are compelling intelligence indicators pointing to a possible underground nuclear test by the North Korean government. If this intelligence assessment turns out to be correct, it would be the hermit country’s sixth underground nuclear test.  

This assessment is based; in part on the fact that recent satellite imagery showing that there has been significant topographical changes in the grounds of the North Korean Punggye-ri nuclear test site, in recent weeks. US officials noted that, for several weeks, United States’ surveillance satellites have carefully monitored activities on at the test site—including vehicles, personal and equipment movements, as well as construction work on tunnels.

It was noted that the most recent imagery shows that activities have ceased at the site— an indicator that a test could be eminent. In the past, just before the previous nuclear tests, the same patterns had been observed, causing US officials to conclude that a nuclear test was in the offering, in the near term.       

In confirmation of the US assessment, the spokesperson for the South Korean Ministry of Unification said, in a Friday press briefing, that “It is assessed that North Korea is ready to carry out a nuclear test anytime if its leadership decides to do so.”

It however makes good sense to assume that since the North Korean leadership must be aware that US spy assets in the sky are constantly monitoring their activities, they would occasionally engage in the deceptive acts of moving its military personnel, weapon systems and equipment around in other to thwart US surveillance satellites’ ability to definitively know what the country’s military is up to.

If the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, does give the order for an underground nuclear test to be conducted it would be a marked provocation for the administration of the US President, Donald Trump. Officials of the new Trump administration have all but admitted that the North Korean conundrum is one that is extremely challenging to manage.

The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, tacitly alluded to this fact in Tokyo, on his recent trip to Asia earlier this month, when he remarked. “…I think it’s important to recognize that the diplomatic and other efforts of the past twenty years to bring North Korea to a point of denuclearization have failed…”

Although the new US administration has been carefully reviewing its options on how to deal with the North Korean dilemma, they are equally mindful that a miscalculation in the handling of this possible provocation by the North Koreans could result in an outcome with an unintended consequence.  

It is noteworthy to add that it has been reported that United States’ military strategists have assessed that a US attack on North Korea would likely result in a North Korean military assault on Seoul—an outcome that would undoubtedly lead to catastrophic military conflict that all sides would be wise to avoid.

In the event, however, that the North Korean leadership does sign off on an order to conduct a nuclear test—in violation of past United Nations’ Security Council resolutions, the United States is maintaining a specially equipped WC-135 aircraft in the region, with the capacity to conduct air sampling test in other to confirm a suspected underground nuclear test.

It should be recalled that after the January, 2016 Pyongyang’s nuclear test, the United Nations’ 15-member Security Council, at the urging of the United States and Japan, held an emergency closed-door meeting to discuss possible punitive sanctions against North Korea. After the meeting, the members U.N. Security Council (which includes China, Russia and the United States) together condemned the test as “a clear violation of past Security Council resolutions…and of the nuclear non-proliferation regime”.

The statement from the Security Council, at the time, stated in part, that, “…The members of the Security Council (express) determination to take further significant measures in the event of another DPRK nuclear test. And in line with this commitment and the gravity of this violation, the members of the Security Council will begin to work immediately on such measures in a new Security Council resolution.”

It’d be interesting to see how the members of the United Nations would react to a new North Korean violation of U.N. Security Council’s nuclear non-proliferation resolution in the current global political climate. I do sincerely hope that cooler heads prevail, in the unfortunate event that North Korean leadership does decide to proceed with the underground nuclear test.  

Authored by E. Stanley Ukeni, © 2017. All Rights Reserved. This material and other articles or stories posted on this blog site may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed, in whole or in part, without prior expressed written permission from the author, E. Stanley Ukeni.

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